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The role of map-based environmental information in supporting integration between river basin planning and spatial planning

Smith, H.M., G. Wall, and K.L. Blackstock, 2013: “The role of map-based environmental information in supporting integration between river basin planning and spatial planning.” Environmental Science and Policy, v. 30, pp. 81-89, doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.018.

Numerous drivers are encouraging greater integration between spatial planning systems and the river basin planning systems associated with the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). However, there is often limited understanding of how this might be accomplished in practical terms. This paper presents one facet of a wider project that examined the emerging relationship between river basin planning and spatial planning in Scotland. The results presented here show that there is considerable emphasis on developing map-based tools to communicate complex environmental information (related to the ecological status of water bodies) as a means of securing integration between the two policy regimes. However, these tools are also helping to shape how the wider policy discourse of integration is understood and put into practice in this context. Specifically, the reliance on such tools may serve to downplay the need for broader discussion and dialogue. This paper does not argue that map-based tools should be disregarded, but rather that their use should be situated within (and not used to replace) a meaningful discursive context. Otherwise, they may help to obscure the fundamental tensions and tradeoffs that are inherent in the governance of the land–water interface.

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Warming-induced upslope advance of subalpine forest is severely limited by geomorphic processes

Macias-Fauria, M., and E.A. Johnson, 2013: “Warming-induced upslope advance of subalpine forest is severely limited by geomorphic processes.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 110, pp. 8117-8122, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1221278110.

Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas because of climate warming, causing land-cover change and fragmentation of alpine habitats. However, this expansion will only occur if the present upper treeline is limited by low-growing season temperatures that reduce plant growth. This temperature limitation has not been quantified at a landscape scale. Here, we show that temperature alone cannot realistically explain high-elevation tree cover over a >100-km² area in the Canadian Rockies and that geologic/geomorphic processes are fundamental to understanding the heterogeneous landscape distribution of trees. Furthermore, upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario will be severely limited by availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Our results imply that landscape-to-regional scale projections of warming-induced, high-elevation forest advance into alpine areas should not be based solely on temperature-sensitive, site-specific upper-treeline studies but also on geomorphic processes that control tree occurrence at long (centuries/millennia) timescales.

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Used planet: A global history

Ellis, E.C., J.O. Kaplan, D.Q. Fuller, S. Vavrus, K.K/ Goldewijk, and P.H. Verburg, 2013: “Used planet: A global history.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 110, pp. 7978-7985, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1217241110.

Human use of land has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change often described as historically recent and potentially catastrophic for both humanity and the biosphere. Interdisciplinary paleoecological, archaeological, and historical studies challenge this view, indicating that land use has been extensive and sustained for millennia in some regions and that recent trends may represent as much a recovery as an acceleration. Here we synthesize recent scientific evidence and theory on the emergence, history, and future of land use as a process transforming the Earth System and use this to explain why relatively small human populations likely caused widespread and profound ecological changes more than 3,000 y ago, whereas the largest and wealthiest human populations in history are using less arable land per person every decade. Contrasting two spatially explicit global reconstructions of land-use history shows that reconstructions incorporating adaptive changes in land-use systems over time, including land-use intensification, offer a more spatially detailed and plausible assessment of our planet’s history, with a biosphere and perhaps even climate long ago affected by humans. Although land-use processes are now shifting rapidly from historical patterns in both type and scale, integrative global land-use models that incorporate dynamic adaptations in human–environment relationships help to advance our understanding of both past and future land-use changes, including their sustainability and potential global effects.

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Multi-temporal image analysis of historical aerial photographs and recent satellite imagery reveals evolution of water body surface area and polygonal terrain morphology in Kobuk Valley National Park, Alaska

Necsoiu, M., C.L. Dinwiddie, G.R. Walter, A. Larsen, and S.A. Stothoff, 2013: “Multi-temporal image analysis of historical aerial photographs and recent satellite imagery reveals evolution of water body surface area and polygonal terrain morphology in Kobuk Valley National Park, Alaska.” Environmental Research Letters, v. 8, paper no. 025007, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025007.

Multi-temporal image analysis of very-high-resolution historical aerial and recent satellite imagery of the Ahnewetut Wetlands in Kobuk Valley National Park, Alaska, revealed the nature of thaw lake and polygonal terrain evolution over a 54-year period of record comprising two 27-year intervals (1951–1978, 1978–2005). Using active-contouring-based change detection, high-precision orthorectification and co-registration and the normalized difference index, surface area expansion and contraction of 22 shallow water bodies, ranging in size from 0.09 to 179 ha, and the transition of ice-wedge polygons from a low- to a high-centered morphology were quantified. Total surface area decreased by only 0.4% during the first time interval, but decreased by 5.5% during the second time interval. Twelve water bodies (ten lakes and two ponds) were relatively stable with net surface area decreases of ≤10%, including four lakes that gained area during both time intervals, whereas ten water bodies (five lakes and five ponds) had surface area losses in excess of 10%, including two ponds that drained completely. Polygonal terrain remained relatively stable during the first time interval, but transformation of polygons from low- to high-centered was significant during the second time interval.

Open Access

Horizontal cooling towers: riverine ecosystem services and the fate of thermoelectric heat in the contemporary Northeast US

Stewart, R.J., W.M. Wollheim, A. Miara, C.J. Vörösmarty, B. Fekete, R.B. Lammers, and B. Rosenzweig, 2013: “Horizontal cooling towers: riverine ecosystem services and the fate of thermoelectric heat in the contemporary Northeast US.” Environmental Research Letters, v. 8, paper no. 025010, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025010.

The electricity sector is dependent on rivers to provide ecosystem services that help regulate excess heat, either through provision of water for evaporative cooling or by conveying, diluting and attenuating waste heat inputs. Reliance on these ecosystem services alters flow and temperature regimes, which impact fish habitat and other aquatic ecosystem services. We demonstrate the contemporary (2000–2010) dependence of the electricity sector on riverine ecosystem services and associated aquatic impacts in the Northeast US, a region with a high density of thermoelectric power plants. We quantify these dynamics using a spatially distributed hydrology and water temperature model (the framework for aquatic modeling in the Earth system), coupled with the thermoelectric power and thermal pollution model. We find that 28.4% of thermoelectric heat production is transferred to rivers, whereas 25.9% is directed to vertical cooling towers. Regionally, only 11.3% of heat transferred to rivers is dissipated to the atmosphere and the rest is delivered to coasts, in part due to the distribution of power plants within the river system. Impacts to the flow regime are minimal, while impacts to the thermal regime include increased river lengths of unsuitable habitats for fish with maximum thermal tolerances of 24.0, 29.0, and 34.0 ° C in segments downstream of plants by 0.6%, 9.8%, and 53.9%, respectively. Our analysis highlights the interactions among electricity production, cooling technologies, aquatic impacts, and ecosystem services, and can be used to assess the full costs and tradeoffs of electricity production at regional scales.

A video abstract is also available at the link above.

Open Access

Life cycle water use for electricity generation: a review and harmonization of literature estimates

Meldrum, J., S. Nettles-Anderson, G. Heath, and J. Macknick, 2013: “Life cycle water use for electricity generation: a review and harmonization of literature estimates.” Environmental Research Letters, v. 8, paper no. 015031, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015031.

This article provides consolidated estimates of water withdrawal and water consumption for the full life cycle of selected electricity generating technologies, which includes component manufacturing, fuel acquisition, processing, and transport, and power plant operation and decommissioning. Estimates were gathered through a broad search of publicly available sources, screened for quality and relevance, and harmonized for methodological differences. Published estimates vary substantially, due in part to differences in production pathways, in defined boundaries, and in performance parameters. Despite limitations to available data, we find that: water used for cooling of thermoelectric power plants dominates the life cycle water use in most cases; the coal, natural gas, and nuclear fuel cycles require substantial water per megawatt-hour in most cases; and, a substantial proportion of life cycle water use per megawatt-hour is required for the manufacturing and construction of concentrating solar, geothermal, photovoltaic, and wind power facilities. On the basis of the best available evidence for the evaluated technologies, total life cycle water use appears lowest for electricity generated by photovoltaics and wind, and highest for thermoelectric generation technologies. This report provides the foundation for conducting water use impact assessments of the power sector while also identifying gaps in data that could guide future research.

Open Access

Formulating natural hazard policies under uncertainty

Stein, J.L., and S. Stein, 2013: “Formulating natural hazard policies under uncertainty.” SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, doi: 10.1137/120891149.

Uncertainty issues are crucial in assessing the risk posed by natural hazards and developing strategies to mitigate their consequences for society. The challenges are illustrated by the giant earthquake that struck Japan’s Tohoku coast in March, 2011, which was much larger than had been predicted by sophisticated hazard models and so caused a tsunami that overtopped 5—10 m seawalls, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Deciding whether to rebuild these defenses and more generally what strategies to employ against such rare events depends on estimating the balance between the costs and benefits of mitigation. Making such estimates is a complex challenge at the intersection of geoscience, mathematics, and economics. The major uncertainty is the probabilities of the rare, extreme events and the waiting or recurrence times between them. The probabilities of these events are difficult to estimate because the physics of earthquake recurrence is not adequately understood, and the short geologic record provides only a few observations. We present a general stochastic model in which the probabilities either are constant with time or depend on the previous history. We then develop models for two hazard policy issues facing Japan. One uses a stochastic model to select an optimum mitigation strategy against future tsunamis by minimizing the sum of the expected present value of the damage, the costs of mitigation, and a risk premium reflecting the variance of the hazard. We also consider whether new nuclear power plants should be built, using a deterministic model that does not require estimating essentially unknown probabilities. These models can be generalized to mitigation policy situations involving other natural hazards.

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Future species composition will affect forest water use after loss of eastern hemlock from southern Appalachian forests

Brantley, S.T., C.R. Ford, and J.M. Vose, 2013: “Future species composition will affect forest water use after loss of eastern hemlock from southern Appalachian forests.” Ecological Applications, doi: 10.1890/12-0616.1.

Infestation of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) with hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) has caused widespread mortality of this key canopy species throughout much of the southern Appalachian Mountains in the past decade. Because eastern hemlock is heavily concentrated in riparian habitats, maintains a dense canopy and has an evergreen leaf habit, its loss is expected to have a major impact on forest processes, including transpiration (E_t). Our goal was to estimate changes in stand level E_t since HWA infestation, and predict future effects of forest regeneration on forest E_t in stands where hemlock once represented 50-60% of forest basal area. We used a combination of community surveys, sap flux measurements, and empirical models relating sap flux scaled leaf-level transpiration (E_L) to climate to estimate the change in E_t after hemlock mortality and forecast how forest E_t will change in the future in response to eastern hemlock loss.

From 2004 to 2011, eastern hemlock die-off along riparian corridors in the southern Appalachian Mountains reduced annual forest E_t by 22% and reduced winter E_t by 74%. As hemlock mortality increased, growth of deciduous tree species-especially sweet birch (Betula lenta L.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), and the evergreen understory shrub rosebay rhododendron (Rhododendron maximum L.)- also increased, and these species will likely dominate post-hemlock riparian forests. All of these species have higher daytime E_L rates than hemlock; and replacement of hemlock with species that have less conservative transpiration rates will result in rapid recovery of annual stand E_t. Further, we predict that annual stand E_t will eventually surpass E_t levels observed before hemlock was infested with HWA. This long-term increase in forest E_t may reduce stream discharge, especially during the growing season. However, the dominance of deciduous species in the canopy will result in a permanent reduction in winter E_t and possible increase in winter stream discharge. The effects of the hemlock die-off and replacement with deciduous species will have a significant impact on the hydrologic flux of forest transpiration, especially in winter. These results highlight the impact that invasive species can have on landscape-level ecosystem fluxes.

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Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.

Pederson, G.T., J.L. Betancourt, and G.J. McCabe, 2013: “Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.” Geophysical Research Letters, v. 40, doi: 10.1002/grl.50424.

We used a first-order, monthly snow model and observations to disentangle seasonal influences on 20th century,regional snowpack anomalies in the Rocky Mountains of western North America, where interannual variations in cool-season (November–March) temperatures are broadly synchronous, but precipitation is typically antiphased north to south and uncorrelated with temperature. Over the previous eight centuries, regional snowpack variability exhibits strong, decadally persistent north-south (N-S) antiphasing of snowpack anomalies. Contrary to the normal regional antiphasing, two intervals of spatially synchronized snow deficits were identified. Snow deficits shown during the 1930s were synchronized north-south by low cool-season precipitation, with spring warming (February–March) since the 1980s driving the majority of the recent synchronous snow declines, especially across the low to middle elevations. Spring warming strongly influenced low snowpacks in the north after 1958, but not in the south until after 1980. The post-1980, synchronous snow decline reduced snow cover at low to middle elevations by ~20% and partly explains earlier and reduced streamflow and both longer and more active fire seasons. Climatologies of Rocky Mountain snowpack are shown to be seasonally and regionally complex, with Pacific decadal variability positively reinforcing the anthropogenic warming trend.

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Scientific foundations for an IUCN Red List of ecosystems

Keith, D.A., J.P. Rodríguez, K.M. Rodríguez-Clark, E. Nicholson, K. Aapala, A. Alonso, M. Asmussen, S. Bachman, A. Basset, E.G. Barrow, J.S. Benson, M.J. Bishop, R. Bonifacio, T.M. Brooks, M.A. Burgman, P. Comer, F.A. Comín, F. Essl, D. Faber-Langendoen, P.G. Fairweather, R.J. Holdaway, M. Jennings, R.T. Kingsford, R.E. Lester, R. Mac Nally, M.A. McCarthy, J. Moat, M.A. Oliveira-Miranda, P. Pisanu, B. Poulin, T.J. Regan, U. Riecken, M.D. Spalding, and S. Zambrano-Martínez, 2013: “Scientific foundations for an IUCN Red List of ecosystems.” PLoS ONE, v. 8, paper no. e62111, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0062111.

An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world’s ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity.

Open Access