Gaudard, L., and F. Romerio, 2013: “The future of hydropower in Europe: Interconnecting climate, markets and policies.” Environmental Science and Policy, doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2013.09.008.
Hydropower is very important for electricity supply security in the European inter-connexion as well as for the economy of regions (primarily peripheral) that possess water resources. Its future may however be jeopardized by several factors: climate change, the development of new renewable energy, the creation of super and micro-grids, and progress in power storage technology. Energy and climate policy, as well as electricity market design and dynamics play a pivotal role.
This article carries out a comprehensive analysis of all these factors and discusses the future of hydropower. This discussion follows an overview of the present situation and of future drivers. The technical, environmental, economic and political aspects of the problem are analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach. The stakes as well as the uncertainties are highlighted.
The conclusion is that hydropower has a promising future, particularly in light of emerging sustainable energy policy, but that the risks should not be overlooked. Academics will find a comprehensive interdisciplinary analysis of hydropower in this article, whereas public bodies, communities and hydropower companies can identify the strategic variables that should be taken into consideration in the decision making process. The end of water concessions or authorizations is also evoked.
Roje-Bonacci, T., and O. Bonacci, 2013: “The possible negative consequences of underground dam and reservoir construction and operation in coastal karst areas: An example of the hydro-electric power plant (HEPP) Ombla near Dubrovnik (Croatia).” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, v. 13, pp. 2041-2052, doi: 10.5194/nhess-13-2041-2013.
The Ombla Spring represents a typical abundant coastal karst spring located in the vicinity of the town of Dubrovnik (Croatia). Its outlet is at an altitude of 2.5 m above sea level (m a.s.l.) and the water from it immediately flows into the Adriatic Sea. The minimum and maximum measured discharges are 3.96 m3 s−1 and 117 m3 s−1, respectively. The Trebišnjica River traverses through its catchment. The mean annual discharge, after the canalization of over 60 km of its watercourse with spray concrete (in the time span 1981–2011), is 24.05 m3 s−1. Before massive civil engineering work which took place during 1968–1980, the mean annual discharge was 28.35 m3 s−1. There is a project for construction of the hydro-electric power plant (HEPP) Ombla, which will exclusively use groundwater from the Ombla Spring karst aquifer. The underground dam will be constructed about 200 m behind the existing karst spring outflow in the karst massif, by injecting a grout curtain. The top of the grout curtain is planned to be at an altitude of 130 m a.s.l. This karst system is complex, sensitive, vulnerable and ecologically extremely valuable. The grout curtain, as well as the HEPP Ombla development, could lead to extremely dangerous technical and environmental consequences. In this paper some probable, negative consequences of the HEPP Ombla construction and development are explained. The HEPP Ombla could result in many large and hard-to-predict negative consequences which are specific for this particular HEPP, for example (1) severe spring discharge change; (2) unpredictable regional groundwater redistribution; (3) threatening of endemic fauna; (4) induced seismicity; (5) induced sinkholes; (6) occurrence of landslides; (7) conflict regarding internationally shared karst aquifers; (8) intensification of karst flash floods; (9) sea water intrusion in coastal karst aquifer; etc.
Wu, Y., and J. Chen, 2013: “Estimating irrigation water demand using an improved method and optimizing reservoir operation for water supply and hydropower generation: A case study of the Xinfengjiang reservoir in southern China.” Agricultural Water Management, v. 116, pp. 110-121, doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2012.10.016.
The ever-increasing demand for water due to growth of population and socioeconomic development in the past several decades has posed a worldwide threat to water supply security and to the environmental health of rivers. This study aims to derive reservoir operating rules through establishing a multi-objective optimization model for the Xinfengjiang (XFJ) reservoir in the East River Basin in southern China to minimize water supply deficit and maximize hydropower generation. Additionally, to enhance the estimation of irrigation water demand from the downstream agricultural area of the XFJ reservoir, a conventional method for calculating crop water demand is improved using hydrological model simulation results. Although the optimal reservoir operating rules are derived for the XFJ reservoir with three priority scenarios (water supply only, hydropower generation only, and equal priority), the river environmental health is set as the basic demand no matter which scenario is adopted. The results show that the new rules derived under the three scenarios can improve the reservoir operation for both water supply and hydropower generation when comparing to the historical performance. Moreover, these alternative reservoir operating policies provide the flexibility for the reservoir authority to choose the most appropriate one. Although changing the current operating rules may influence its hydropower-oriented functions, the new rules can be significant to cope with the increasingly prominent water shortage and degradation in the aquatic environment. Overall, our results and methods (improved estimation of irrigation water demand and formulation of the reservoir optimization model) can be useful for local watershed managers and valuable for other researchers worldwide.
Kibler, K.M., and D.D. Tullos, 2013: “Cumulative biophysical impact of small and large hydropower development in Nu River, China.” Water Resources Research, v. 49, doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20243.
Support for low-carbon energy and opposition to new large dams encourages global development of small hydropower facilities. This support is manifested in national and international energy and development policies designed to incentivize growth in the small hydropower sector while curtailing large dam construction. However, the preference of small to large dams assumes, without justification, that small hydropower dams entail fewer and less severe environmental and social externalities than large hydropower dams. With the objective to evaluate the validity of this assumption, we investigate cumulative biophysical effects of small (<50 MW) and large hydropower dams in China’s Nu River basin, and compare effects normalized per megawatt of power produced. Results reveal that biophysical impacts of small hydropower may exceed those of large hydropower, particularly with regard to habitat and hydrologic change. These results indicate that more comprehensive standards for impact assessment and governance of small hydropower projects may be necessary to encourage low-impact energy development.
Stickler, C.M., M.T. Coe, M.H. Costa, D.C. Nepstad, D.G. McGrath, L.C.P. Dias, H.O. Rodrigues, and B.S. Soares-Filho, 2013: “Dependence of hydropower energy generation on forests in the Amazon Basin at local and regional scales.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1215331110.
Tropical rainforest regions have large hydropower generation potential that figures prominently in many nations’ energy growth strategies. Feasibility studies of hydropower plants typically ignore the effect of future deforestation or assume that deforestation will have a positive effect on river discharge and energy generation resulting from declines in evapotranspiration (ET) associated with forest conversion. Forest loss can also reduce river discharge, however, by inhibiting rainfall. We used land use, hydrological, and climate models to examine the local “direct” effects (through changes in ET within the watershed) and the potential regional “indirect” effects (through changes in rainfall) of deforestation on river discharge and energy generation potential for the Belo Monte energy complex, one of the world’s largest hydropower plants that is currently under construction on the Xingu River in the eastern Amazon. In the absence of indirect effects of deforestation, simulated deforestation of 20% and 40% within the Xingu River basin increased discharge by 4–8% and 10–12%, with similar increases in energy generation. When indirect effects were considered, deforestation of the Amazon region inhibited rainfall within the Xingu Basin, counterbalancing declines in ET and decreasing discharge by 6–36%. Under business-as-usual projections of forest loss for 2050 (40%), simulated power generation declined to only 25% of maximum plant output and 60% of the industry’s own projections. Like other energy sources, hydropower plants present large social and environmental costs. Their reliability as energy sources, however, must take into account their dependence on forests.
Wang, P., J.P. Lassoie, S. Dong, and S.J. Morreale, 2013: “A framework for social impact analysis of large dams: A case study of cascading dams on the Upper-Mekong River, China.” Journal of Environmental Management, v. 117, pp. 131-140, doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.12.045.
Construction of large dams on the Upper-Mekong River, China, has significant social impacts on local communities. To analyze the social impacts, we identified three classes of wealth for the affected people, material, embodied, and relational, and comprehensively compared the loss and compensation in each type of wealth. Then we examined the effects on gap of wealth at household and community levels. Lastly, an insider–outsider analysis was conducted to understand the differences in the perceptions of wealth loss between local villagers and policy makers, and recommendations for more reasonable compensation policies were provided.
Pal, I., U. Lall, A.W. Robertson, M.A. Cane, and R. Bansal, 2013: “Diagnostics of Western Himalayan Satluj River flow: Warm season (MAM/JJAS) inflow into Bhakra dam in India.” Journal of Hydrology, v. 478, pp. 132-147, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.053.
Here we analyze the variability of MAM (March–April–May) and JJAS (June–July–August–September) seasonal Satluj River flow into the Bhakra dam in India through Pearson anomaly correlation and composite analyses with antecedent and concurrent seasonal climatic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The MAM seasonal inflow of Bhakra dam is significantly correlated with winter (DJF/FM) precipitation and temperature of the Satluj basin while the correlation with FM was more prominent for precipitation (snow = +0.72, rainfall = +0.60), and temperature (diurnal temperature range (DTR) = −0.76 and maximum temperature (Tmax) = −0.57). The JJAS inflow was also positively correlated with DJF/FM as well as JJAS precipitation of the Satluj basin while the correlation with basin average FM was the largest (+0.54). These suggested that both MAM and JJAS inflow anomalies are linked with DJF/FM climate over the Western Himalayas and adjoining north and central Indian plains, which were also found to be linked with the fluctuation of equatorial concurrent Sea Surface Temperature anomalies over the western Indian Ocean (max anomaly correlation was > +0.70) and mean sea level pressure over western pole of the Southern Oscillation sea-saw region (max Pearson anomaly correlation was ∼ +0.60). Low (high) MAM inflow was found to be associated with negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over the basin and north India in DJF and FM while FM precipitation anomaly is more concentrated over the Western Himalayas. In addition, low (high) JJAS inflow is also associated with negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over the basin and north India in DJF and over the Western Himalaya in FM and JJAS. Negative geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa (Z500) over Siberia and northwestern pacific in DJF, and positive Z500 anomaly over the northwest India in FM were noticed in low MAM inflow years. Whereas high inflow in MAM was linked with a negative Z500 anomaly between two positive Z500 anomaly regions – one over eastern Siberia stretched up to northern Pacific and second over the Eastern Europe in DJF, which gets stronger in FM. We also found southwesterly (northeasterly) wind vectors at 850 hPa pressure level (uv850) bringing more (less) moisture to the Western Himalayas in DJF and FM in high (low) MAM/JJAS flow years.
Brown, J., K.E. Limburg, J.R. Waldman, K. Stephenson, E.P. Glenn, F. Juanes, and A. Jordaan, 2013: “Fish and hydropower on the U.S. Atlantic coast: Failed fisheries policies from half-way technologies.” Conservation Letters, doi: 10.1111/conl.12000.
Globally, diadromous species are at risk from fragmentation by damming of rivers, and a host of other anthropogenic factors. On the United States Atlantic Coast, where diadromous fish populations have undergone dramatic declines, restoration programs based on fishway construction and hatcheries have sustained remnant populations, but large-scale restoration has not been achieved. We examine anadromous fish restoration programs on three large Atlantic Coast rivers, the Susquehanna, Connecticut, and Merrimack with multiple mainstem hydropower dams, most with relatively low generating capacity. Mean passage efficiencies through fishways on these rivers from the first dam to the spawning grounds for American shad are less than 3%. The result is that only small fractions of targeted fish species are able to complete migrations. It may be time to admit failure of fish passage and hatchery-based restoration programs and acknowledge that significant diadromous species restoration is not possible without dam removals. The approach being employed on the Penobscot River, where dams are being removed or provided the opportunity to increase power generation within a plan to provide increased access to habitat, offers a good model for restoration. Dammed Atlantic Coastal rivers offer a cautionary tale for developing nations intent on hydropower development, suggesting that lasting ecosystem-wide impacts cannot be compensated for through fish passage and hatchery technology.
Li, J., S. Dong, Z. Yang, M. Peng, S. Liu, X. Li, 2012: “Effects of cascade hydropower dams on the structure and distribution of riparian and upland vegetation along the middle-lower Lancang-Mekong River.” Forest Ecology and Management, v. 284, pp. 251-259, doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.07.050.
The extensive number of hydropower dams being planned in southwest China has attracted much attention in recent years. Eight cascading dams along the middle and lower reaches of the Lancang-Mekong River basin were selected to assess the riparian and upland vegetation. A total of 24 transects and 126 quadrats perpendicular to the river channel were surveyed from upstream to downstream. By using two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN), the vegetation types in this region were classified into 21 vegetation classes. The ecological gradient analysis was completed using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and demonstrated that the dominant environmental factors impacting vegetation distribution were the variations in latitude and altitude. The vegetation impact index (VII) was developed as a quantitative index to assess the impact of dam inundation and operation on the upland and riparian vegetation. The values of VII showed that the most endangered vegetation communities were the shrub and herb communities in riparian habitats along this river. The effects of cascading hydropower dams on riparian and upland vegetation distribution were more complex than those of single dams. Cascading hydropower dams can enhance habitat fragmentation, reduce the distribution ranges (latitude and altitude) of primary vegetation and reduce the complexity of the vegetation types along the river as well as induce the loss of primary vegetation in the whole watershed.
Zhai, H., B. Cui, B. Hu, and K. Zhang, 2010: “Prediction of river ecological integrity after cascade hydropower dam construction on the mainstream of rivers in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region (LRGR), China.” Ecological Engineering, v. 36, no. 4, pp. 361-372, doi: 10.1016/j.ecoleng.2009.10.002.
Dam construction is considered the major factor contributing to significant modification of river ecosystems. The related ecological effects of these constructions on flow patterns, water quality, sediment etc. have led to increased concerns in recent years. Most of the works so far focus on the assessment of vulnerability, risk, and damages to single factors, such as soil conservation, fish reproduction or vegetation. Few works have been done on to analyzing and predicting the changes of the river ecosystem integrity (REI). Taking three important international rivers, Lancang River, Nu River and Yuan River in LRGR as a case study, the relationship between cascade dam construction and REI is analyzed. A model of the cascade dam construction and the REI is developed on Lancang River after cascade construction, and then it is applied on the Nu River and Yuan River to predict the changes of REI after the planned cascade construction. The results show that there are significant relationships between the cascade construction and the change of the REI. Before the cascade development, REI index of Nu River is the highest with a value of 0.844. Yuan River, the worst of the three before the cascade construction (0.719), is found to be the best one after the cascade construction (0.389). After the cascade construction, the REI index value of the Lancang River is likely to dramatically decrease from 0.825 to 0.274.