Borris, M., M. Viklander, A.-M. Gustafsson, and J. Marsalek, 2013: “Simulating future trends in urban stormwater quality for changing climate, urban land use and environmental controls.” Water Science and Technology, v. 68, pp. 2082–2089, doi: 10.2166/wst.2013.465.
The effects of climatic changes, progressing urbanization and improved environmental controls on the simulated urban stormwater quality in a northern Sweden community were studied. Future scenarios accounting for those changes were developed and their effects simulated with the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). It was observed that the simulated stormwater quality was highly sensitive to the scenarios, mimicking progressing urbanization with varying catchment imperviousness and area. Thus, land use change was identified as one of the most influential factors and in some scenarios, urban growth caused changes in runoff quantity and quality exceeding those caused by a changing climate. Adaptation measures, including the reduction of directly connected impervious surfaces (DCIS) through the integration of more green spaces into the urban landscape, or disconnection of DCIS were effective in reducing runoff volume and pollutant loads. Furthermore, pollutant source control measures, including material substitution, were effective in reducing pollutant loads and significantly improving stormwater quality.
Martinuzzi, S., S.R. Januchowski-Hartley, B.M. Pracheil, P.B. McIntyre, A.J. Plantinga, D.J. Lewis, and V.C. Radeloff, 2014: “Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States.” Global Change Biology, v. 20, pp. 113–124, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12383.
Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001–2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use.
Jordan, Y.C., A. Ghulam, and S. Hartling, 2014: “Traits of surface water pollution under climate and land use changes: A remote sensing and hydrological modeling approach.” Earth-Science Reviews, v. 128, pp. 181-195, doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.11.005.
In this paper, spatial and temporal trajectories of land cover/land use change (LCLUC) derived from Landsat data record are combined with hydrological modeling to explore the implication of vegetation dynamics on soil erosion and total suspended sediment (TSS) loading to surface rivers. The inter-annual coefficient of variation (CoV) of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to screen the LCLUC and climate change. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is employed to identify the monthly TSS for two times interval (1991 to 2001 and 2001 to 2011) at subbasin levels. SWAT model is calibrated from 1991 to 2001 and validated from 2002 to 2011 at three USGS gauging sites located in the study area. The Spearman’s rank correlation of annual mean TSS is used to assess the temporal trends of TSS dynamics in the subbasins in the two study periods. The spatial correlation among NDVI, LCLUC, climate change and TSS loading rate changes is quantified by using linear regression model and negative/positive trend analysis. Our results showed that higher rainfall yields contribute to higher TSS loading into surface waters. A higher inter-annual accumulated vegetation index and lower inter-annual CoV distributed over the uplands resulted in a lower TSS loading rate, while a relatively low vegetation index with larger CoV observed over lowlands resulted in a higher TSS loading rate. The TSS loading rate at the basin outlet increased with the decrease of annual NDVI due to expanding urban areas in the watershed. The results also suggested nonlinearity between the trends of TSS loading with any of a specific land cover change because of the fact that the contribution of a factor can be influenced by the effects of other factors. However, dominant factors that shape the relationship between the trend of TSS loading and specific land cover changes were detected. The change of forest showed a negative relationship while agriculture and pasture demonstrated positive relationships with TSS loading change. Our results do not show any significant causal relationship between urbanization and the TSS loading change suggesting that further investigation needs to be carried out to understand the mechanism of the impact of urban sprawl on surface water quality.
Vander Laan, J.J., C.P. Hawkins, J.R. Olson, and R.A. Hill, 2013: “Linking land use, in-stream stressors, and biological condition to infer causes of regional ecological impairment in streams.” Freshwater Science, v. 32, pp. 801-820, doi: 10.1899/12-186.1.
We used field-derived data from streams in Nevada, USA, to quantify relationships between stream biological condition, in-stream stressors, and potential sources of stress (land use). We used 2 freshwater macroinvertebrate-based indices to measure biological condition: a multimetric index (MMI) and an observed to expected (O/E) index of taxonomic completeness. We considered 4 categories of potential stressors: dissolved metals, total dissolved solids, nutrients, and flow alteration. For physicochemical factors that varied predictably across natural environmental gradients, we quantified potential stress as the site-specific difference between observed (O) and expected (E) levels of each factor (O–Estress). We then used 2 sets of Random Forest models to quantify relationships between: 1) biological condition and potential stressors, and 2) stressor values and land uses. The 2 indices of biological condition were differentially responsive to stressors, indicating that no single measure of biological condition could fully characterize assemblage response to stress. Total dissolved solids (as measured by electrical conductivity [EC]) and metal contamination were the stressors most strongly associated with biological degradation. The most likely sources of these stressors were agriculture, urban development, and mining. Our findings highlight the need to develop EC criteria for streams. Measures of biological condition and stress that account for natural variability should reduce errors of inference and increase confidence in causal analyses. This approach will require development of robust models capable of predicting physical and chemical reference conditions. Causal analyses for individual sites require appropriate hypotheses about which stressors and what levels of stress can cause biological degradation. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of field data collected from multiple sites within a region for developing these hypotheses.
Schmid, P.E., and D. Niyogi, 2013: “Impact of city size on precipitation-modifying potential.” Geophysical Research Letters, v. 40, doi: 10.1002/grl.50656.
This study investigates how increasing city size affects local weather modification potential using an innovative new method: the real atmosphere, idealized land-surface (RAIL) method. The RAIL method simplifies the land surface by making a flat, homogeneous land surface for a control simulation. Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, an instance of weak linear convection was simulated over three nested grids with a minimum grid spacing of 0.75 km. Using the RAIL method, cities of radius 5 to 40 km were placed in the path of the simulated precipitation to study the impact. For the weak-convection case, the urban area effects showed urban heat island and urban moisture depression effects and produced regions of both precipitation suppression and invigoration downwind of the city. Modification increased up to a radius of 20 km and more slowly after indicating a threshold city size for urban modification on thunderstorms.
Seo, Y., N.-J. Choi, and A.R. Schmidt, 2013: “Contribution of directly connected and isolated impervious areas to urban drainage network hydrographs.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 17, pp. 3473-3483, doi: 10.5194/hess-17-3473-2013.
This paper addresses the mass balance error observed in runoff hydrographs in urban watersheds by introducing assumptions regarding the contribution of infiltrated rainfall from pervious areas and isolated impervious area (IIA) to the runoff hydrograph. Rainfall infiltrating into pervious areas has been assumed not to contribute to the runoff hydrograph until Hortonian excess rainfall occurs. However, mass balance analysis in an urban watershed indicates that rainfall infiltrated to pervious areas can contribute directly to the runoff hydrograph, thereby offering an explanation for the long hydrograph tail commonly observed in runoff from urban storm sewers. In this study, a hydrologic analysis based on the width function is introduced, with two types of width functions obtained from both pervious and impervious areas, respectively. The width function can be regarded as the direct interpretation of the network response. These two width functions are derived to obtain distinct response functions for directly connected impervious areas (DCIA), IIA, and pervious areas. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of runoff hydrographs and suggest the need to consider the flow contribution from pervious areas to the runoff hydrograph. It also implies that additional contribution from flow paths through joints and cracks in sewer pipes needs to be taken into account to improve the estimation of runoff hydrographs in urban catchments.
Vietz, G.J., M.J. Sammonds, C.J. Walsh, T.D. Fletcher, I.D. Rutherfurd, and M.J. Stewardson, 2013: “Ecologically relevant geomorphic attributes of streams are impaired by even low levels of watershed effective imperviousness.” Geomorphology, doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.09.019.
Urbanization almost inevitably results in changes to stream morphology. Understanding the mechanisms for such impacts is a prerequisite to minimizing stream degradation and achieving restoration goals. However, investigations of urban-induced changes to stream morphology typically use indicators of watershed urbanization that may not adequately represent degrading mechanisms and that commonly focus on geomorphic attributes such as channel dimensions that may be of little significance to the ecological goals for restoration. We address these shortcomings by testing if a measure characterizing urban stormwater drainage system connections to streams (effective imperviousness, EI) is a better predictor of change to ecologically relevant geomorphic attributes than a more general measure of urban density (total imperviousness, TI). We test this for 17 sites in independent watersheds across a gradient of urbanization. We found that EI was a better predictor of all geomorphic variables tested than was TI. Bank instability was positively correlated with EI, while width/depth (a measure of channel incision), bedload sediment depth, and frequency of bars, benches, and large wood were negatively correlated. Large changes in all geomorphic variables were detected at very low levels of EI (< 2–3%). Excess urban stormwater runoff, as represented by EI, drives geomorphic change in urban streams, highlighting the dominant role of the stormwater drainage system in efficiently transferring stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces to the stream, as found for ecological indicators. It is likely that geomorphic condition of streams in urbanizing watersheds, particularly those attributes of ecological relevance, can only be maintained if excess urban stormwater flows are kept out of streams through retention and harvesting. The extent to which EI can be reduced within urban and urbanizing watersheds, through techniques such as distributed stormwater harvesting and infiltration, and the components of the hydrologic regime to be addressed, require further investigation.
Chang, S.E., T. McDaniels, J. Fox, R. Dhariwal, and H. Longstaff, 2013: “Toward disaster-resilient cities: Characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments.” Risk Analysis, doi: 10.1111/risa.12133.
Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community’s infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors.
Porse, E., 2013: “Stormwater governance and future cities.” Water, v. 5, pp. 29-52, doi: 10.3390/w5010029.
Urban stormwater infrastructure traditionally promoted conveyance. Cities are increasingly designing stormwater infrastructure that integrates both conveyance and infiltration in hybrid systems to achieve public health, safety, environmental, and social goals. In addition, cities face decisions about distribution of responsibilities for stormwater management and maintenance between institutions and landowners. Hybrid governance structures combine centralized and distributed management to facilitate planning, operations, funding, and maintenance. Effective governance in any management approach will require changes in the expertise of stormwater agencies. Recognizing the distinction between hybrid infrastructure and hybrid governance is important in long-term planning decisions for construction and management of stormwater systems. A framework is presented that relates the level and type of existing stormwater infrastructure with available capital, institutional development, and predominant citizen contributions. Cities with extensive existing infrastructure are increasingly integrating distributed, “green” approaches that promote infiltration, and must improve institutional expertise for governance decisions. For cities with little existing infrastructure, landowner management often dominates, especially when municipalities cannot keep pace with rapid growth. In between, rapidly industrializing cities are positioned to use growing capital resources to fund both conveyance and infiltration measures based on current design principles. For all cities, local management innovations, including decisions regarding public engagement, will be critical in shaping future urban stormwater systems.
Dobbie, M.F., and R.R. Brown, 2013: “A framework for understanding risk perception, explored from the perspective of the water practitioner.” Risk Analysis, doi: 10.1111/risa.12100.
Sustainable urban water systems are likely to be hybrids of centralized and decentralized infrastructure, managed as an integrated system in water-sensitive cities. The technology for many of these systems is available. However, social and institutional barriers, which can be understood as deeply embedded risk perceptions, have impeded their implementation. Risk perceptions within the water sector are often unrecognized or unacknowledged, despite their role in risk management generally in informing value judgments and specifically in ranking risks to achieve management objectives. There has been very little examination of the role of these risk perceptions in advancing more sustainable water supply management through the adoption of alternative sources. To address this gap, this article presents a framework that can be used as a tool for understanding risk perceptions. The framework is built on the relational theory of risk and presents the range of human phenomena that might influence the perception of an “object at risk” in relation to a “risk object.” It has been synthesized from a critical review of theoretical, conceptual, and empirical studies of perception broadly and risk perception specifically, and interpreted in relation to water practitioners. For a water practitioner, the risk object might be an alternative water system, a component, a process, or a technology, and the object at risk could be public or environmental health, profitability, or professional reputation. This framework has two important functions: to allow practitioners to understand their own and others’ risk perceptions, which might differ, and to inform further empirical research.